The wholesale used-vehicle market is correcting, and electric vehicles are quietly rewriting the rules at the same time.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell to 211.5 in the first 15 days of July, a 0.6% decrease from June on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonality-adjusted basis. Year over year, however, values are still up 2%, a sign that the market is normalizing from a strong spring rather than turning over. Non-adjusted wholesale prices dropped 1.9% in the first half of July from June but remain 2.4% above the same point a year ago. For context, the long-term average July move in non-adjusted values is a full-month decrease of 0.7%, so the current pace of depreciation is running somewhat hotter than typical seasonal patterns.
Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jeremy Robb attributes the deceleration to exactly that: normalization. A prolonged Spring Bounce pushed values well above trend, and the market is working its way back. Underneath that correction, though, two separate trends are pulling in opposite directions. Older, more affordable units are holding up better than the broader index, as budget-constrained shoppers look for relief from elevated prices elsewhere in the economy. Meanwhile, wholesale inventory is loosening as off-lease maturities hit the market, giving dealers better access to late-model product.
The EV story deserves its own paragraph. The EV Index was up 12.4% year over year and down just 0.4% from June, a far more resilient performance than the non-EV Index, which gained 1.1% year over year and fell 0.5% from June. More telling is the share figure: used EVs have climbed to over 4% of all units driving the Manheim Index value, a level the index has never recorded before. Elevated gas prices have sustained consumer interest, and that interest is showing up in actual transaction data, not just sentiment surveys. SUVs and pickups have posted declines in wholesale prices against last year; compact cars and EVs are the segments running against that grain.
The mechanical gauges of market health are still pointing to solid footing. MMR retention averaged 99.4% in the first half of July, up 0.2 points year over year and flat from June. Sales conversion averaged 55.1% in the first half of July, down 1 point year over year and off 1.7 points from June, but still above the longer-term run rate, which suggests buyers at auction are still transacting at a healthy clip. The Three-Year-Old Index, often used as a proxy for late-model vehicle pricing, fell 1.1% since the beginning of July, considerably weaker than last year’s comparable trend when tariff-related pressures were supporting wholesale values.
Wholesale supply is creeping higher. At the end of June, days’ supply sat at 27 days, up 1.6 days versus June 2025 and up 0.3 days from the end of May. By July 15, that figure had risen to 28 days, about 1.5 days above the year-ago level. The off-lease pipeline is the primary driver, and Cox Automotive expects that trend to continue through the rest of the year. Inventory growth is currently outpacing the pickup in sales, which is worth watching for dealers managing floor costs.
On the retail side, new-vehicle sales have outperformed used through the early summer, with Cox Automotive pointing to equity-market strength as a driver of demand at the higher end. Used retail, by contrast, has held flat against the stronger levels posted last year, a relationship that has compressed the usual demand signal dealers rely on to source inventory.
The mid-July snapshot is, in short, a market that is slower than its spring peak and healthier than its year-ago baseline. EVs topping 4% of Manheim Index volume is the number that will age best from this report, whenever historians decide to mark the point when the used EV market became something dealers had to plan around.
Source: Cox Automotive. Images courtesy of Cox Automotive.
