Asian brands are on track to claim more than half of all U.S. new-vehicle sales for a second consecutive quarter, and the market that was supposed to slow down hasn’t.
On September 24, Cox Automotive raised its full-year 2026 new-vehicle sales forecast to 16.1 million units, up from the 15.8 million it projected in June. The revision reflects a market that has repeatedly outperformed expectations despite elevated interest rates, higher fuel prices, and what Cox describes as historically low consumer confidence. Strong summer sales, improving credit availability, and sustained retail demand all fed the upward move. Retail sales are now expected to reach 13.1 million units for the year, with fleet volume projected at 3 million.
September’s numbers frame the picture. Cox forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.3 million for the month, below August’s 16.8 million pace but above last September’s 16.6 million rate. Year-over-year volume is expected to rise 6.5%, though month-over-month volume is projected to fall 2.7%. Selling-day math complicates the comparison: September had 25 selling days, one more than a year ago but one fewer than August, and Labor Day shifted from August last year into September this year.
The structural story underneath the volume numbers is the market share shift. Asian automakers are approaching record-high share, having now exceeded more than half of U.S. new-vehicle sales for two consecutive quarters. The Detroit 3 are projected to hold just over 36% market share for the period, a record low. Cox senior economist Charlie Chesbrough tied the trend directly to product mix: consumers are gravitating toward hybrids and passenger cars, categories where Asian manufacturers hold significant product and scale advantages, and that migration is expected to continue through the end of the year.
Among individual automakers, General Motors is still projected to lead overall sales for both the third quarter and year to date, but its share has softened compared with a year ago. Toyota is forecast to post year-over-year Q3 growth and continues to narrow the gap with GM. Hyundai Motor Group is expected to finish Q3 ahead of Ford Motor Company. Ford’s first-half sales were tracking down 10.3% year over year as of the June forecast, a gap that made its Q3 position difficult to recover.
The lease market is a notable soft spot. Cox projects lease penetration at 23% for the year, lower than earlier estimates, with the loss of the federal EV tax credit cited as the primary pressure on leasing activity. New EV sales were already running 21.9% below year-ago levels in May, and the removal of federal incentives has added friction to the financing structures that made EV leasing accessible to a broader buyer pool.
The used-vehicle side of the forecast rounds out the picture. Cox projects 20.5 million used retail sales and 38.5 million total used-vehicle sales for 2026, with pre-owned sales at 2.6 million units. Total used sales are still expected to finish slightly below 2025 levels despite the retail gains.
Chief economist Jeremy Robb put it plainly: the market has more demand behind it now than Cox believed three months ago, and affordability headwinds that looked like they would cap volume haven’t. Dealer sentiment in Q2 had already recovered for a second straight quarter, even as the three-month outlook fell below the positive 50 threshold, suggesting the floor was firmer than the forward-looking surveys implied.
The Detroit 3 at 36% share is the number that will matter most when the year closes. That floor, if it holds, marks a structural shift, not a seasonal one.
Source: Cox Automotive. Images courtesy of Cox Automotive.
