Cox Automotive held its 2026 new-vehicle sales forecast unchanged at 15.8 million units, down 2.9% from 2025, in its mid-year outlook released Tuesday. The June seasonally adjusted annual rate is expected to finish near 16.1 million, roughly in line with March, April, and May, an unusual period of consistency given the volatility that opened the year.
First-half 2026 sales are tracking 3.6% lower year over year. June volume is forecast at 1.34 million units, a gain compared to June 2025 but a decline from May. The second quarter is expected to finish stronger than the weather-impacted first quarter, which closed at a 15.6 million SAAR.
The market has proven resilient despite economic and policy uncertainty, according to Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “Although there is a tremendous amount of economic and policy uncertainty these days, the new-vehicle market seems to be relatively unfazed,” Chesbrough said in a statement. “Thus far, vehicle buyers have shrugged off the latest shock, the Iran War and higher gas prices, as new-vehicle sales have been fairly stable the last few months.”
Affordability remains the central constraint, increasingly shaped by broader household finances rather than vehicle prices alone. Elevated interest rates, higher costs for essentials, and tighter budgets are limiting purchasing power across income levels. Strong equity markets and accumulated household wealth are helping support demand, particularly among high-income buyers.
The first-half manufacturer rankings show General Motors holding the volume lead but under pressure. GM is expected to finish the second quarter with just under 705,000 vehicles sold, down 5.1% year over year. First-half sales are tracking 7.2% lower, with all GM brands posting declines. Buick and Cadillac are each down more than 20% for the first half, resulting in modest market-share loss.
Toyota is emerging as a challenger for the top spot. Second-quarter sales are expected to rise 18.8% from the first quarter, well ahead of the broader market, fueled by strong demand for redesigned products and broad hybrid offerings. The growth narrows the gap with GM to less than 100,000 units and sets up a potential shift in leadership by year-end if trends hold.
Ford is facing a challenging year. Cox Automotive estimates show first-half sales expected to fall 10.3%. Tesla is also under pressure, with volumes down 14.6% amid intensifying competition and fewer products to sell. Electric vehicle sales, which surged briefly in 2025 ahead of incentive changes, have seen softer demand in early 2026. The loss of federal tax incentives continues to negatively impact the market, with EV sales forecast to be lower by 28% year over year in the first quarter.
Elsewhere, performance across automakers is mixed. Hyundai Motor Group continues to deliver steady gains, with first-half share increasing by 0.7 percentage points. Stellantis sales have rebounded, with volume up 4.8% and market share improving after several years of decline.
Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jeremy Robb framed the year-over-year decline as a function of 2025’s stronger-than-expected performance rather than meaningful deterioration in 2026 demand. “Last year’s stronger performance set a high benchmark, but demand remains resilient,” Robb said. “As inflation pressures begin to ease and the Fed stays focused on supporting economic stability, we believe the industry is positioned to maintain a steady sales environment through the remainder of 2026.”
Retail sales are projected to reach 12.9 million units, slightly lower than the first-quarter forecast update. Fleet sales are expected to total 2.9 million units, down modestly year over year but improved from the Q1 estimate. The full-year forecast assumes no major policy shocks and continued fluctuation in the high-15 to low-16 million range.
The data tells the industry what it likely already knows: the market can absorb economic volatility better than it absorbs structural affordability problems, and the automakers shipping hybrids and redesigned product are the ones gaining ground.
Source: Cox Automotive. Images courtesy of Cox Automotive.
